Now that we have our invoices, it is time for our more mathematically inclined travelers to help us play the odds. (Marc? Anne?)

Here is a site with historical currency prices - going back 2000 days:

USD/ZAR historical rates

At anytime that the rand hits a high figure you can pay some or all of your balance due. Some have paid money on their safari when the rand was high.

The good news is showing your new invoices at 6.7 rand is being realistic. If we were paying today and could get the rand exchange shown on the web or about 7.0 most invoices would end up being $300 to $500 less per person. There are so many different price points this is the "general" range.

Do remember that you do NOT get the rand exchange shown on the web. If the web shows 7.3 you normally get afound 7.0 it makes a big difference.

So watch the rand - pay a little if it gets high. It makes a BIG difference.

My plan: Pay part of it if I can get at least 7.75 ZAR to 1 USD.

The morbid plan: Keep an eye on Nelson Mandela's health. He was reportedly not in good health while we were there for Roar I (April 2006). His passing will likely be a big deal for the power structure in South Africa. Here's the latest news I found on Yahoo!:

Nelson Mandela news April 17, 2007

Your mathematically inclined amateur currency groupie, Anne

I knew we could count on you, Anne!

Geeze, I barely have time to uncork the wine now.........( I do manage however) gals help me here, I will watch this link, and pay whenever someone tells me too!!!

Cindy, I will also follow the group. I hated playing follow the leader as a kid, always wanted to be the leader. ;) However, in this case I will definately count on the math experts!

Cheers, Pam

Leslie, I have a hard enough time hedging one currency. As my COLA adjusts each month based on Japanese Yen exchange rate (goes down if dollar goes up), I really need to make sure that I time my transfer of dollars into yen so that I get at least the rate they base my COLA on or I can end up with less net funds. I transfer funds (in dollars) to Japanese bank once a month and then have to decide when to make conversion into Yen. If I think dollar might go down I will convert all at once, if I think it might go up, I might convert a little at a time to hedge my bets. Being a pessimist, I never think it will go up a lot for sure so I don't wait to last minute when I need the funds.

For you ROARers, you need to make the same bet. If you can get a X% or so rise over your "priced" trip (e.g., 7.30 vs 6.70), you might want to lock in part of the cost at that time. As long as you make sure that if the dollar is falling you lock in no lower than 6.70, you guarantee always coming out ahead. And, if the dollar goes up big time (e.g., 9.00), you still have a chance to get in on some of the good money. One caution with this is that the exchange rate between the dollar and rand can change fast and your 6.90 rate is all of a sudden 6.20 before K&D can process your payment. Whether 7.30 or 7.10 or 7.50 is the number you want to look in for a partial payment is an individual decision based on how much you like to gamble.

Hope this helps. I hope even more that it doesn't hurt. ;)

We have to also switch from Rands to US Dollars to Canadian Dollars. Only thing going for us is that the CDN dollar will in all likelyhood will be at par with USD or very near by then, Maybe we should "hedge" on the currency market with options. OK just joking,I'm not liscensed any more lol.

Mark makes some excellent points. Use the invoice rate as your guide. This trip is going to be waaaay more expensive at 6 rand to the $ vs. 7 rand to the $. The South African rand is a lightly traded currency, so there can be meaningful changes on a day-to-day basis. Finally, we don't get the published rate as our trades are small relative to the reference interebank rates.

Using Leslie's handy link, the average rate over the past three years is 6.60, high 7.97 and low 5.54. My target transfer rate is aggressive! I will time my transfers depending on how the news and economic picture develops over time. Those of you who have dual currency trades have the opportunity and challenge to keep track of both rates to seek optimal changes.

Pat and Ray, options are an interesting idea. Can you trade them on the Canadian markets? Leslie's link will provide the historical CAD/ZAR rate data. You can figure out if the premium paid on the option allows you to set an advantageous floor to your exchange rate. I'm not aware of a readily accessible market for retail investors to in trade USD/ZAR options. I'm too cheap to pay the premiums, anyway, and unwilling to take the risk of an unfavorable move if I earn the premium by writing the option. LOL!

I use at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange page, as I get a quick visual on the exchange rate, price of gold and stock market values. http://www.jse.co.za/ It's live through about 8 am EST. It's 7.3385 right now.

Let's hope the currency shifts continue to move in our favor. Happy speculating!

Cheers, Anne

I think that we have some REAL experts on this issue here. When the rand gets favorable and anyone notices maybe it would be great if you could post that and then people can watch this space and make a payment if they like. In fact I may send out an email to everyone with that suggestion. Everyones personal decision of course.

Right now I am paying in Houston, in US $$ that they then send immediately to South Africa and get the rand exchange. So you would say, charge $5000 for instance and then they let me know the exchange amount in Rand and I post it to your invoice. You will see a US$5000 charge on your credit card.

This whole Rand/US dollar exchange issue is a mess. I wont even go into it all here but in order to charge in RAND I have to directly charge to South Africa which I can do. I just prefer transactions to come out of the US rather than Africa. That is how I handled all the deposits. The variance in how much we pay based on the exchange rate is amazing.

Anne and Marc were the kids you wanted to sit next to during an exam hoping to "Get A Little Help From My Friends" <img border="0" alt="[naughty]" title="" src="graemlins/naughty.gif" /> <img border="0" alt="[naughty]" title="" src="graemlins/naughty.gif" /> <img border="0" alt="[naughty]" title="" src="graemlins/naughty.gif" />

We call that teamwork, Joanna! :D

Cheers, Anne

Team work indeed! :app: :app: :app:

The help on these boards i.e. currency exchanges, tour guides, hotels, restaurants, etc., etc. is amazing! That is one of the things that makes this board so great. Everyone has expertise to contribute.
:lct:

This forum is always so helpful. Watching the price of the RAND gets one excited about the trip. One comment on paying ahead- do not overlook the cost of the forgone interest on the deposit funds. That loss should be deducted from the exchange rate savings or gain. As the amounts most of us are talking about the us number in in the area of 10,000 to perhaps 15,000. At a tax free money market rate of 3% that is 300 to 450 dollars for a period of a year.

As we get closer to the 9/08 date that amount is less. Just some thoughts that some may not have had a chance to think of yet.

If the RAND were to go to 7.5 the exchange on 100,000 would be 13,333 (not sure if it would be that high due to the average rate Ngaire says they use). If the 6.7 exchange rate is used for the 100,0000 it is 14925. A potential savings of 1592 but if done a year ahead the saving is reduced by (14000 x 3.0%) or 420. A 1172 savings is still a lot but not as much as some readers may have thought it would be.

While the RAND exchange rate is fun to talk about I am most concerned about the plane tickets. Carol and I are in So Cal. The trip to So Africa is far away and we want to use ff miles for business class. Should be interesting to see if we can get what we want on AA and BA. I see the plane thing a much bigger issue than the exchange rate.

Carol and I are so looking forward to ROAR II it is hard to accept it is still a year away.

Sorry for my ramblings on a Friday morning.

Agreed! Getting the flights you want in the class you want needs time and attention.

Agreed on the interest cost you point out as well. Minor adjustment: final payment is due mid June, 2008, so adjust interest calculation period accordingly.

Cheers, Anne

Ngaire, so I take that to mean we will not be charged that pesky foreign transaction fee which most credit card companies impose? I am trying to recall, but I think our initial deposit showed on our credit card in US funds (thus, no foreign transaction fee). I only ask, because if we are going to get slapped with a foreign transaction fee, I better get us a Capital One card. I should probably do that anyway, since we've started traveling out of the US more often...

At this time I am paying in US dollars. It is so complicated I dont know how to even explain all this or even if I should try!

We are being billed in RAND. I cant charge the exact amount in RAND at final payment in US dollars because no one knows the exact return.

So deposits, partial payments I can run through Houston in US dollars and they give me the exchange rate I put that on your invoices. You all paid a deposit of $1000 US but everyone has a different deposit in RAND based on when it was charged.

If I want PAY in RAND to match the invoice exactly then I have to send the money directly to South AFrica and yes it comes up with those transaction fees.

US credit cards cannot charge in a foreign currency.

My thinking is that as it gets close that I ask K&D to give us an exchange rate that they will commit to for our payments. We then know the exchange we will get and I can pay off all the invoices accurately and in US dollars.

For individual travellers with itineraries arranged in Houston, K&D quotes in US dollars but of course they hedge that bet. They win some and they lose some. This is always the big complication. They have to protect themselves though so I think there is more "room" in their rates for fluctuations to the downside.

Some individual safaris I arrange directly with South Africa any pay via US credit card in South Africa in Rand.

K&D Houston are not prepared to quote and lock in a US dollar figure for a group so far in the future and so large. Closer to time for final payment my plan was to negotiate a rate with K&D and pay in US dollars. This is on "my plate" for the future.

If the rand gets high of course K&D will give us a better exchange rate offer so we could always do a final payment for individual people at different times.

Thanks for all this explanation Ngaire. I liked it how you did it for us on our WC Safari. It was quoted in Rand but we watched the exchange rate (well, I didn't but Tom sure did) and jumped on it the day it just happened to be at it's best! It's always a gamble since you don't know if it's best to wait as it may get even better..... or not. We timed it perfect!

Marcie paid in RAND in South Africa.

I do think that the credit card fees or bank fees you pay one way or another. Pay here in US dollars or pay in Rand in South Africa. They always have a way "to get you".

I know Capital One does not charge a transaction fee but I have often wondered if they just add it to the rate they use for the exchange.

Ken and I are planning on buying some items of the exact cost. One on MC and one on AMX and comparing. We were considering getting a Capital One card just to try it out. If it really is an benefit we travel so much.

Anyone else really checked this out???

Rates from www.oanda.com
on Thursday, March 1, 2007
1 US Dollar = 0.51004 British Pound
Clay was in London for a week around the end of February/beginning of March and got these rates on
Capital One 0.514138 GBP/$
AMEX card 0.498891 GBP/$
BBT ATM 0.499500 GBP/$

So, we have checked this out and think that Capital One is a better deal for foreign purchases.

Debbie

Debbie would know she is a GREAT researcher! I think we will get a Capital One card if just for travelling. I dont like their mileage program at all and I need to earn miles for my cards. However, for travel it may be sensible to use that card.

We have the Capital One and use it ONLY for foreign purchases because of not charging the foreign transaction fee. Other than foreign purchases, the card is not good IMO. At home everything goes on Starwood AmEx.

Agreed .. I follow Marcie & Tom's credit card advice. The Capital One does save money on foreign currency transactions. It's not as user-friendly as my other cards. Be sure to call them to advise when & where you travel, as well as an estimate of what you plan to charge. If you don't, they look at your recent usage ($0 in my case). Then you get the card rejected when you've found something wonderful in the gold souk. Don't let it happen to you! LOL!

Cheers, Anne

Ngaire, et al.: I also have recent info on Capital One. We returned from 2 weeks in Europe on May 15, and I can tell you that Capital One does not just increase the exchange rate they use. We used Gail's Capital One Visa card almost exclusively in Europe. On a couple of occasions I used my Delta Plat. AMX card to buy gas because I thought we'd get double miles as in the U.S. You don't! The official exchange rate was about $1.35 per Euro. Capital One charges came in about $.01 more, while AMX charges came in about $.03 more than the official rate. (Only thing I bought in Europe other than food and lodging was a post card!)

-------------

Eugene

P.S. We're like Ngaire in that we need to get miles for $ because (unlike Ngaire) we don't travel that much. Specifically, we want credit cards that enable us to purchase or upgrade for Business Class. Capital One's program doesn't. What I've never understood, is why they don't figure out that if they had a program that did so, they might sign up a lot more people with their endless mailings. When I've asked Gail about this--she just retired as an Business-IT Specialist/Lawyer from Capital One--she wasn't sure but assumed that their analyses must show it is not advantageous for them.

Dreps - Marcie and Tom pointed out the wisdom to us of using the Starwood Amex card for points accumulation. It allows you to transfer points into your mileage account, has no annual fee and is very flexible. It's been a home run in our opinion, as the points required for free hotel stays are extremely reasonable on Starwood.

If you don't travel much, then a slightly higher exchange rate may well be worth the flexibility you get with racking up Starwood Amex points for all your purchases. I'll use it again next week & let you know for sure if there's any difficulty getting the points credited on overseas purchases to our Starwood account.

Capital One does offer its "No Hassles" rewards card, but I believe that simply buys you a ticket, rather than give you points towards business class upgrades. If that's correct, then this reward card from Capital One would not achieve your purposes.

Cheers, Anne

Anne, I have 3 AMX cards: "Real" Platinum, Delta Platinum, and Starwood. We have the Platinum card for the $300 cabin credit, the Delta Platinum because we have a lot of Delta miles, and until this year, Delta had numerous double- and triple-mile promotions (they still have their Always Double miles for certain purchases). Recently, I got the Starwood card precisely because of its airline flexibility and 5K bonus when transferring 20K. However, right now Delta is giving bonuses for threshold spending, so we're back to using it a lot. My post was only meant to confirm the information about Capital One, and I guess to rant a bit because Capital One could get our business if they had a program that enabled us to obtain Business Class seats for reasonable points/mileage.

Some people only fly one airline so having that one card to get miles may make sense. In our case, we fly various airlines....AA, Delta, NWA, etc. so it's better for us to have the flexibility to work with various airlines. FJORDS we're flying Delta Biz Class and 100% of the miles needed came from AmEx Starwood. Next trip we may be on AA, Continental, Luthansa or who knows what airline. From time to time we use Starwood points for hotel stays but we primarily use it for f.f. miles.

Like most LCTers, we're now in the habit of chargin 99.9% of everything....need those points!!

Eugene - sounds like you've got the right mix of credit cards for your purposes. The triple miles sure add up.

Thanks for the confirmation re: Capital One gave you a more favorable rate than Amex.

Returning to our regularly scheduled topic: today's ZAR/USD rate is 7.22

Cheers, Anne

I swear you have to be a brain surgeon to figure out all the cards and what card is best. It can vary but we are really focused on AMX Starwood as well. Got us to CAMEL.

7.22 roll on about 7.8 back to its old recent high would be nice. I leave in July so hope it keeps creeping up for that trip.

To get points for our stay in Monaco next year I am thinking of getting the Starwood Amex (would be are 4th Amex card). After spending $2,000, I would then have 12,000 starpoints. One concern is that Starwood site says credit card is free first year and $30 thereafter. Here, people are claiming it is free. Are there certain conditions for it to be free?

I have never used a credit card for miles except for Delta. With Starwood Amex, I understand that you get a bonus of 5,000 for every 20,000 transferred? So, for 50,000 miles to go to Northwest, I would need 40,000 starpoints?

My big problem has been Northwest as their awards are cheaper than Delta even though they are both Skyteam. I have no points with them and they are not hooked into Membership Rewards.

thanks,

Marc, I think you have all the facts correctly. We just got a Starwood AMX also (we only have 3 AMX cards!) because of the flexibility. I think it is free only for the first year, though $30 a year thereafter is pretty reasonable. (Maybe someone else knows a "trick" to get the fee waived?) Your understanding of the needed points is correct as I understand it. I just double-checked on the *Wood site on the airlines partners and transfer ratios. Unfortunately, the 2 airlines I have the most points on after Delta are United and Continental, and they have 2:1 transfers instead of 1:1 (like DL and NW). As I mentioned above, we started charging everything on *Wood until I decided it was better to get the 10,000 bonus miles (and Medallion credit) on the DL AMX per $25,000 spent--at least until we max those.

------------

Eugene

Eugene, I hadn't relized that the ratio for exchanging points was different on some of the airlines so I followed your lead and looked at the chart. It appears to be no bargain for the Air New Zealand exchange, lol.

Frequent Flyer Program Exchange Ratio (Starpoints : Miles)

Aeroplan/Air Canada
Call Customer Contact Center
Air China Companion
1:1
Air New Zealand & Air Points
65:1
Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan
1:1
Alitalia MilleMiglia
1:1
All Nippon Airways (ANA) Mileage Club
1:1
American Airlines AAdvantage
1:1
Asiana Airlines
1:1
British Airways Executive Club
1:1
Cathay Pacific Asia Miles
1:1
Continental Airlines(R) OnePass
2:1
Delta Air Lines SkyMiles
1:1
El Al Israel Airlines
No Transfer Option
Emirates and Sri Lankan Airlines Skywards
1:1
Flying Blue
1:1
Hawaiian Airlines
1:1
Japan Airlines (JAL) Mileage Bank
1:1
LAN LANPASS
1:2
Lufthansa Miles and More
1:1
Mexicana Frecuenta
1:1
Northwest Airlines WorldPerks®
1:1
Qantas Airways Frequent Flyer
1:1
Qatar Airways
1:1
Saudi Arabian Airlines Alfursan
1:1
Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer
1:1
Thai Airways International Royal Orchid Plus
1:1
US Airways Dividend Miles
1:1
United Mileage Plus
2:1
VARIG Smiles
2:1
Virgin Atlantic Flying Club
1:1

Karen - thanks for taking the time to list out the airlines. This is a handy reference.

Today's exchange rate is 7.20 rand/1 us from the JSE site.

Cheers, Anne

I think I gave this link once before, but since this is once again becoming a hot topic, I thought it might be useful to repost. It's sort of fun to look at the exchange rate fluctuations; see Exchange Rate History .

Before we went on TUSK, I was amazed at how volatile the $/Rand exchange rate was. I had been used to the relative stability of looking at $ versus Euros and Yen.

--------------

Eugene

Unfortunately, the Rand has been steadily getting stronger against the US$ across the last month or two. Glad we made a partial payment while it was at 7.42...now it's at 6.65! Hopefully it will swing back by the time final payment is due.

Now 6.54...... :ohmy: talk about plunging in a HURRY!

Yes and it makes a big difference. It also RISES in a hurry. So I do suggest next time we hit the above 7 mark that people make a large payment.

25,000 rand @ 6.54 = $3822
25,000 rand @ 7.00 = $3571
25,000 rand @ 7.42 = $3369 - smart lady!

It adds up when you get a better rand exchange.

I am glad you are all keeping an eye on the Rand. Keep us posted, so we will know when to make a large payment, Thanx! Judy

The dollar has strengthened/rand has weakened a bit. Today's rate hovered around 7 rand per US$1 today.
Cheers, Anne