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Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
212 PM AKDT Thursday 22 March 2018

...MARCH 2018 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

Looking at the big picture, the ups and downs of the 2017-2018 sea
ice season in the Bering Sea continued through much of March. Sea
ice did once again grow and thicken by mid-March, however the ice
edge has not yet made it as far south as Saint Matthew Island this
season. The ice extent as of the third week of March is still
somewhat similar to the extent of sea ice in mid-March 2001, a
winter when the sea ice edge did not reach Saint Matthew Island
until the very end of March. Sea surface temperatures remain above
average in much of the Bering Sea, especially the northwestern area
of the Bering Sea.

As we look forward toward break-up through June, we will likely
still see periods of ice growth through early to mid-April as
weather patterns shift and colder northerly winds return. As break-
up begins in earnest we expect locations within the Bering Sea and
southern Chukchi Sea to break up as fast or faster than the past
couple years due to the lack of thickness of much of the sea ice and
the continued warm sea surface temperatures.

Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.

...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...

For Bristol Bay...sea ice concentrations will likely widely
fluctuate through early April as storms are expected to continue to
move through Bristol Bay this spring. We do not expect sea ice
concentrations to reach 7 tenths within Bristol Bay this winter.

The ice edge may reach Saint Matthew Island by the first week of
April. Whether or not the ice edge makes it there is highly
dependent on continued colder air over the region through this time.
If the ice edge does make it to Saint Matthew Island, it would
likely only do so briefly before retreating once again. We do not
expect the sea ice to go significantly beyond Saint Matthew Island
this season.

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...

Bristol Bay is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the
second week of April.

For Kuskokwim Bay...sea ice is expected to reach 3 tenths
concentration by the third week of April and be sea ice free for the
season by the second week of May.

Etolin Strait is expected to be less than 3 tenths concentration by
the first week of April and be sea ice free for the season by
mid-April.

For coastal waters to 20 NM offshore from Etolin Strait to Cape
Romanzof...we expect this area to be less than 3 tenths
concentration by the 2nd week of April and be sea ice free for the
season by the 3rd week of April.

For coastal waters to 20 NM offshore from Cape Romanzof to
Unalakleet...sea ice concentrations are expected to be less than 3
tenths by the 2nd week of May and be sea ice free for the season by
the 3rd week of May.

For Shaktoolik...we expect this area to be less than 3 tenths
concentration by the 4th week of April and be sea ice free by the
end of April.

For Norton Bay...we expect the sea ice to no longer be shorefast by
the end of April. Sea ice concentrations are expected to be less
than 3 tenths by the second week of May and sea ice free for the
season by the 3rd week of May.

Shorefast ice within Golovin Bay is expected to no longer be
shorefast by the 4th week of April. Sea ice concentrations will
likely be less than 3 tenths by the second week of May and sea ice
free for the season by the middle of May.

Along the Nome coast from Port Safety to Cape Rodney to 20 NM
offshore...sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by the 3rd
week of April. Sea ice concentrations will likely be less than 3
tenths by the first week of May and sea ice free for the season by
the 3rd week of May.

Norton Sound is expected to be less than 3 tenths sea ice
concentration by the 2nd week of May and sea ice free for the season
by the 3rd week of May.

For Port Clarence...sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by
the 2nd week of May. Sea ice concentration will likely reach 3
tenths by the first week of June and be sea ice free for the season
by the second week of June.

The Bering Sea is expected to be sea ice free south of 60N by the
4th week of April.

The Bering Sea south of Saint Lawrence Island may be sea ice free by
the second week of May.

The Bering Strait is expected to be sea ice free by the end of May.

The Bering Sea is expected to be completely sea ice free for the
season by the first week of June.

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...

Ice is expected to no longer be shorefast from Wales to Espenberg by
mid-May.

For coastal waters up to 20 nm offshore from Wales to Espenberg, sea
ice is expected to reach 3 tenths by the first week of June and be
sea ice free for the season by the second week of June.

For Kotzebue Sound, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by
the middle of May. Sea ice concentration is expected to reach 3
tenths by the third week of June and be sea ice free for the season
by the fourth week of June.

For Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope to 20 nm offshore, sea ice is
expected to reach 3 tenths concentration then sea ice free for the
season by the second half of June.

For Point Hope to Icy Cape west to 170W, sea ice is expected to
reach 3 tenths concentration during the second half of June and be
sea ice free for the season by the end of June.

For Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice is expected to no longer be
shorefast during the second half of June. Sea ice throughout coastal
waters to 20 nm offshore from Point Hope to Wainwright is expected
to be sea ice free by the end of June.

Sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast from Wainwright to
Barrow by the end of June.

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...

Sea ice extent within Cook Inlet is expected to fluctuate through
the end of March before break-up begins in earnest in April.

Lower Cook Inlet south of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice
free by the first week of April.

The Forelands to Fire Island is expected to reach 3 tenths
concentration during the first week of April and be sea ice free
during the second week of April.

Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free by the second week of
April.

Knik Arm is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the
second week of April and be sea ice free by the third week of April.

Cook Inlet is expected to be completely sea ice free for the season
by the third week of April.